Australian Army Major General (Retired) Mick Ryan explores the implications of Ukraine’s drone attacks on airbases deep in Russian territory. Ukraine has demonstrated the capability to strike military targets hundreds of miles inside Russian territory, while simultaneously revealing gaps in Russian air defense and showing the Russians that they are not safe from retaliation.
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Russia exploits Telegram security flaw to surveil Ukrainian operative
Information security expert Matt Tait has a fascinating piece on Russia’s exploitation of a security flaw in the chat app Telegram to surveil an operative working with Ukraine’s special forces. Tait analyzes the details in a Washington Post story to evaluate Russia’s access and capabilities. Here’s the bottom line:
(more…)Telegram is not safe to use as a chat or call app. It nearly cost [the Ukrainian operative] his life. Ukrainians—and frankly everyone else too—should find another encrypted application for chats and calls.
Matt Tait
Timur Kuran and protests in China
University of Pittsburgh political science prof Iza Ding offers reflections on Timur Kuran’s study “Now Out of Never” in the context of the current protests in China:
It’s not the grievances, but the ELEMENT OF SURPRISE that’s most intellectually fascinating. Beyond just asking what Chinese people are thinking, we should be asking ourselves why we are so surprised
Iza Ding, University of Pittsburgh
Surovikin’s options in Ukraine
Mick Ryan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has a Twitter thread on what Russian General Sergey Surovikin might be planning in Ukraine:
Militarily, Surovikin has tailored operations in the short term, including the Kherson withdrawal, to account for his current force size and weaknesses. However, moving forward, he will be expected to conduct offensive operations with his ‘enhanced’ military capability.
Mick Ryan, CSIS
Ryan predicts that Surovikin will be expected to conduct new offensive operations and that developing air superiority will be a key concern. He indicates that solving Russia’s command-and-control issues is crucial, but will likely not be easy.
The importance of the declassification process
Former FBI agent Asha Rangappa explains why it’s important that everyone, including the president, follows the proper procedures when declassifying documents.
To declassify a doc is to make a judgment call about its danger to our nat sec, and the person making that call needs to explain that rationale – so that those whom it affects, including public, know why.
Asha Rangappa