On November 2, the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) signed a peace agreement, halting two years of brutal civil war. A joint task force including the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights published a report in September that detailed evidence of war crimes by both sides, including attacks on civilians, ethnic cleansing, and sexual violence. However, it only found evidence of crimes against humanity perpetrated by the government, including widespread and systematic war crimes and use of famine as a weapon of war. Now analysts are beginning to assess the prospects for peace.
The effectiveness of targeting national power grids
History professor Sergey Radchenko examines a 1994 study that examines the effects of targeting national grids in the Korean, Vietnam, and Gulf Wars. He concludes that, while such campaigns might lower civilian morale, they don't produce changes in government policy. Radchenko considers this to be an implication that Russia's efforts to destroy Ukraine's power grid are likely to be ineffective as well.
Could Ukraine retake Crimea?
The Economist has an interesting article about Ukraine's intentions towards Crimea. Russia seized the strategically-important peninsula in an almost bloodless annexation in 2014. Now, The Economist has a Ukrainian military source saying that the country's military has planned to retake Crimea in 2023. But a number of experts warn that the geography and Russian military positions might make doing so a costly endeavor.
Timur Kuran and protests in China
University of Pittsburgh political science prof Iza Ding offers reflections on Timur Kuran's study "Now Out of Never" in the context of the current protests in China:
It’s not the grievances, but the ELEMENT OF SURPRISE that’s most intellectually fascinating. Beyond just asking what Chinese people are thinking, we should be asking ourselves why we are so surprised
Iza Ding, University of Pittsburgh
Surovikin’s options in Ukraine
Mick Ryan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has a Twitter thread on what Russian General Sergey Surovikin might be planning in Ukraine:
Militarily, Surovikin has tailored operations in the short term, including the Kherson withdrawal, to account for his current force size and weaknesses. However, moving forward, he will be expected to conduct offensive operations with his 'enhanced' military capability.
Mick Ryan, CSIS
Export controls on China-bound tech
In October, the Department of Commerce announced new rules designed limit China's access to advanced microchips and semiconductors. Lawfare has an explainer that lays out its most important parts and the changes it makes to current policy.
The importance of the declassification process
Former FBI agent Asha Rangappa explains why it's important that everyone, including the president, follows the proper procedures when declassifying documents.
To declassify a doc is to make a judgment call about its danger to our nat sec, and the person making that call needs to explain that rationale – so that those whom it affects, including public, know why.
Asha Rangappa